ARTICLE | September 02, 2026

A new round of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect August 22, imposing additional duties of up to 50% on $27.6 billion in Canadian products.

For Northern Ontario, the impact will be uneven. Critical minerals remain excluded from the new measures, while certain forest products, manufactured goods and other exports face greater exposure.

Critical Minerals Remain Excluded

The most important distinction for Northern Ontario is what the new tariffs do not cover.

The U.S. measures exclude critical minerals, energy and products already subject to Section 232 tariffs. The 50% duties apply to specific products identified through U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule classifications, rather than to Canadian goods generally.

This is significant for Northern Ontario. Mining is one of the region’s largest economic sectors, with Sudbury’s nickel and copper production forming part of a broader mining economy that extends across the North.

The exclusion reflects the strategic importance of these materials to the United States. Critical minerals are inputs for defence, energy infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, making reliable North American supply strategically important.

For Northern Ontario’s mining sector, the new Section 338 measures do not add another 50% tariff to qualifying critical minerals.

Forestry Faces a More Complicated Picture

Forestry is more exposed, although the impact varies by product.

Some Canadian wood and forest products are included in the new 50% tariff schedules. Products already subject to Section 232 measures, including many softwood lumber products, are excluded from the additional Section 338 duty.

The forestry sector has also dealt with U.S. trade restrictions for years. Producers have responded by expanding into international markets and investing in higher-value wood products. Federal support currently includes programs for market and product diversification, while Ontario continues to support modernization and new forest-product development.

Canada’s response adds another consideration. Beginning September 8, Canada will impose matching counter-tariffs on selected U.S. products, including pulp and paper. Northern Ontario businesses that rely on U.S.-origin inputs should therefore assess whether the Canadian measures will increase their own costs.

Manufacturing Requires a Product-by-Product Review

Manufacturing exposure remains less straightforward.

The U.S. tariff schedules cover specific products and classifications. Products already subject to Section 232 measures are excluded from the new Section 338 duties, although existing tariffs may still apply.

For Northern Ontario manufacturers and mining suppliers, the relevant issue is the classification of the actual product being exported. A company supplying the mining industry should not assume that its equipment or components receive the same tariff treatment as the critical minerals produced by its customers.

Businesses should identify the HTSUS classification for each significant U.S.-bound product and compare it with the tariff annexes in the presidential proclamations.

Useful resources include:

• U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule for identifying the applicable HTSUS classification.
• U.S. International Trade Commission for tariff schedules and classification information.
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection for importing and tariff guidance.
• Canada’s counter-tariff list for businesses importing affected U.S. products.

What This Means for Northern Ontario

Earlier this year, FCR examined why Sudbury has remained comparatively resilient through economic and geopolitical volatility in our article, “Why Sudbury Stands Firm in a Volatile World.” The latest tariff measures largely reinforce that conclusion.

The region’s economic exposure is concentrated in industries receiving very different treatment under the new tariff regime. Critical minerals continue to be excluded, while some forestry and manufactured products face greater exposure to the U.S. market.

That does not make Northern Ontario immune to the effects of tariffs. Mining companies can still be affected by changes in commodity prices, investment, transportation costs and demand, while suppliers and manufacturers may face higher costs or reduced competitiveness. Canada’s counter-tariffs also create potential cost increases for businesses that rely on affected U.S.-origin goods or inputs.

The headline 50% figure, however, should not be applied to the Northern Ontario economy as a whole.

For businesses affected by the U.S. measures, the immediate priority is to determine the tariff classification of U.S.-bound products, confirm whether an exclusion applies and understand how the additional duty affects pricing and margins. Businesses importing goods from the United States should also review Canada’s counter-tariff list to identify potential increases in input costs.

For businesses whose products are excluded, the exercise is still worthwhile. Understanding the distinction between the new tariffs, existing Section 232 measures and other U.S. duties will help avoid both unnecessary concern and costly assumptions.

Northern Ontario remains exposed to the Canada-U.S. trade relationship. However, given the region’s reliance on critical minerals and their exclusion from the new measures, the latest tariffs are more likely to create targeted pressure than a broad economic shock.

Let’s Talk!

Call us at 1 855 363 3526 or fill out the form below and we’ll contact you to discuss your specific situation.